June 8, 2020: Counting What Doesn't Happen -

This morning I found myself pondering how we can, and how we do, measure success, especially when we band together for change. Also, how we measure the effect of preventative measures. 

The ponder was initiated by an article in the Washington Post about a couple of studies from the journal Nature that estimate how many cases of COVID, and how many deaths, were prevented by shelter-in-place orders over the past few months. The numbers are impressive: 60 million infections in the US and 285 million in China; 500,000 lives in the UK, and 3.1 million across 11 countries in Europe.

I’m not disputing these numbers at all, but I’m struck by how hard it is to quantify things that didn’t happen, or even just to explain things that didn’t happen.  People don’t wear tags around their necks saying “I survived because other people stayed home.” Or “I didn’t get sick because other people stayed home.” It might be nice if they could, this time.

The CDC and NCHS (National Center for Health Statistics) website has a COVID-19 section that is a number lover’s dream. If you want to look at some terrific maps, charts, and graphs, head on over. (If you figure out the “excess deaths” graphs, call me. I almost understand them, but then it slips away. I know what excess deaths ARE – I just can’t quite figure out the graphs.)

The chart showing death by age group allows me to thank everybody young who stayed home to protect the lives of us older folk. It was a great kindness and a great sacrifice, and I shall appoint myself spokesperson, just so I can say We are truly grateful to you.

Here are death counts, from February 1 though the end of May. I suspect they all plummet towards 0 in the last weeks only because May numbers haven’t arrived or been tabulated at the CDC/NCHS. We’ll have to check back later. In the meantime, the stratification couldn’t be clearer. Yes, we all knew that older people were more vulnerable. It’s just a striking visual.

I was trying to think about how we could measure other great societal events, and the effect they have – or don’t. What could we count? What charts could we make?

Because I watched both the Women’s March (Day Two of the Trump regime) and the recent protest marches against systemic racism and police brutality from the same spot in Portland, I’ve been thinking about those two movements.  (We should add Pride marches, but I’m sticking with the Hawthorne Bridge for this post.)

What could we count to see if the Women’s March made any difference in American society? There are currently 26 female senators, and 127 female members of the House – a record in both cases, but not even a quarter of either body.  The gender pay gap hasn’t narrowed dramatically in the past three years, or if so, I haven’t found the study.

We could count the handful of men exposed by the MeToo movement. We could count how much some huge backlogs in the processing of rape kits have gone down, if they really have gone down in a statistically significant way. I’m not sure what other numbers we could amass – women on corporate boards? Women who win arts and entertainment awards? Are the TImesUp people keeping count of women on production crews? Can we quantify the number of women who were not grabbed by any part of their anatomy? There’s that “things that didn’t happen” aspect again. What will success look like? Suggestions welcome.

As for the recent marches, we can track the policing policies of America’s cities, maybe a snapshot of how many police departments allowed chokeholds and strangleholds in early 2020, versus a year from now. And we can keep track of the number of people killed by police, and the race of those folks, in the hopes that the number goes down, and the racial inequity goes away.

It was a long ponder, and it doesn't tie together neatly, but like many other people, I'm worrying about the health of the protesters, out there in very close proximity and often being subject to tear gas and other respiratory horrors. I’m worrying because the pandemic isn’t over. And I’m just hoping that the preference of COVID for older victims is going to be a blessing here, some sort of protection for the younger people who are gathering, and marching, and fighting for our rights.