July 2, 2020: Excess Deaths Update -

Lookit that! 

Back on the 27th of June, I was wondering about all the "excess deaths" we have seen since March (deaths way above the average for this time of year, but not attributed to COVID-19). And today the Washington Post published an analysis of precisely that topic, under the headline and subhead: 

Heart conditions drove spike
in deaths beyond those attributed
to covid-19, analysis shows

Fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the

                             pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths, experts say  

The article doesn't look at Oregon, and I was looking at Oregon numbers a few days ago. But it does look at six areas that have had a lot of "excess deaths," and have reported extensively on causes of death:  Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York City, New York State (without New York City), and New Jersey.  

Bottom line, summary: 

 "In many cases, experts said, patients suffered through cardiac events, strokes, hyperglycemia and other health difficulties at home, likely fearful of seeking care in hospitals where large numbers of people suffering from covid-19 were receiving treatment.

Between March 15 and May 23, visits to hospital emergency departments declined 23 percent for heart attacks, 20 percent for strokes and 10 percent for high-blood-sugar crises — a complication of diabetes — when compared with the previous 10 weeks, according to a report last month from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “The striking decline in ED visits for acute life-threatening conditions might partially explain observed excess mortality not associated with COVID-19,” the researchers wrote."

We actually heard about this phenomenon from a neighbor who is head nurse in the ER at a local hospital. Oregon didn't have many cases of COVID in the beginning, and has had few people hospitalized. Still, our neighbor said, her ER was rarely even half full. 

I recall reading something in the past few weeks where the fact that Americans have been going to the ER (and to the doctor) a-whole-lot-less lately was put forth as a sign that we must be a nation of frivolous medical-treatment seekers. Look! People stopped going, and everybody is fine! 

No doubt in our world there is some overconsumption (by those with insurance who can afford to overconsume, by those with hypochondria or hard-to-diagnose maladies or just a tendency to nerves, maybe by doctors who order every test on the books, etc. - whichever tired old trope you want to invoke) but clearly, a lot of people overshot in cutting back, especially when the pandemic was at its height in their area. 

In any case,the biggest contributor to "excess deaths" since March was COVID-19, followed by heart disease, diabetes, strokes and cerebrovascular disease, and Alzheimer's disease. (There are also some dark prognostications about future deaths, from doctors who worry that some people who survived untreated cardiac events sustained lasting heart damage, while other people may have delayed getting suspicious symptoms checked out, and there will be an increase down the line in cancer deaths.) Again, as in Oregon - no upticks were noted in homicide, suicide, or accidents. So there's that.