January 10, 2024: Pestering people -

It’s January, when some of us get invigorated, so I’m back to pestering strangers about voting.The current postcard campaign targets “absentee” Democrats in George Santos’s district – in other words, registered Democrats who haven’t voted for a while, if ever.

Being “data-driven,” I wanted to know what we have learned from previous campaigns. It’s pretty interesting. For example, the impact of postcards is bigger in primaries, special elections, and other “quiet” elections than in elections where voters are bombarded with messaging. Makes sense to me.

Also – and this cracks me up - “motivational” messages are far less effective than “social pressure” messages. Writing, “Make a plan to vote!” doesn’t do much compared to writing, “We know you aren’t voting!” The most effective “social pressure” message tested so far read something like, “No one can know how you voted. But whether or not you voted is a matter of public record.”

It’s a little bit …. much,  right? The folks at Progressive Turnout Project  know that:

“Some volunteers and voters do find social pressure messages distasteful. It is important to keep in mind that the goal of social pressure messages are to increase turnout, not to make voters happy about receiving a postcard. In fact, numerous studies show that messages that focus on issues, those that are partisan, and those that are motivational tend to increase turnout less than those focused on the voting process. As a reminder, being data-driven means following the evidence — not what we wish would work.”

This current campaign wants us to cover Who, What, When, and How to apply for an absentee ballot, which is about all that fits on a postcard. There are a few approved additional sentences, and I’m going with the most social-pressure of them. Fingers crossed.

Okay, so, what are the postcard results? Small. The average postcard campaign boosts turnout by .3% to .4%. Big whoop. I’m barely moving the needle vote-wise, and barely supporting the poor Post Office. Pestering People with Postcards is not unlike my occasional efforts to pick up litter.

And yet! Close elections can hang on a difference of .3% to .4%.  Look at this slice of 2020!

(source: Progressive Turnout Project)

Moreover, once we unleash all that social pressure, the effects do get bigger. Social pressure campaigns can goad .9% of recipients plus .4% of people those recipients know. (This stat gives me a mental image of Mom telling Junior he’s coming with her, this time) I dunno. Maybe I just like pestering.

Anyway, I’ll close with a loosely-related New Years present. Our recent Artist in Residence made (unprompted!) a rendering of a little fantasy for 2024. It’s called Trump in Jail. We had to immediately leap into discussing how people should be sent to jail for breaking the LAW, not just for being baddies we dislike. And we had to say the outcome was unlikely. But still, it was a nice gift.